Whoa! Let’s all pause and wipe our collective brow. The end of 2009 is near and I’m sure we will all bid it a fond farewell in thirty days. Let’s call it the perfect specimen for the “glass half-full – half empty” scenario or that other one about there being a “silver lining” around every dark cloud.
Nonetheless, I’ve put together two lists – 5 Good things about 2009 and 5 Bad. Here goes.
The Bad
1. Jobs and Work
Has there been a tougher year for employers and their employees? Not in very long time. No company was immune and hardly an industry in any part of the country and indeed the globe avoided the downturn. The old notion of “what goes up – must come down” played out in a big way as the entire market pulled back as the bubble deflated.
2. Washington
Business is bracing for the toughest era of anti-business government to arrive in Washington in years. Unfortunately, the “limping into Washington” on the part of Detroit and the financial sector did little to bolster the image of the private sector. But we are the ones that generate jobs and wealth. People that go to work each day know this. Without business there are not jobs. Small business is and will continue to be a factor in the economic recovery.
3. Cash
Borrowing or the lack of it was almost instantaneous, cutting off the life blood of all businesses large and small. The big boys were made flush but have sat on the money to date. The availability of money has not trickled down to small business quick enough - where it’s needed most.
4. Inventory
When the bottom falls out, businesses cut employees which everybody sees. Less obvious to the outside world is the shrinkage of inventories to reduce the level of risk suppliers normally take during good times. To the contractor, it means scarcity and challenges finding materials when we need them. Be assured that your supplier will hear about recovering first and place orders when he sees the likelihood that the inventories will turn.
5. Failures
Most certainly some have not survived. We work in an industry that hinges on a significant percentage of new development. New building boomed for twenty-plus years and we all benefited. Indeed, there was a time when business did, in fact, “walk in the door.” But when the floor falls out, there are casualties and our industry was not without them.
The Good
Ok – how about that silver lining? Let’s take a look at the fluid filling the bottom half of that glass!
1. We’re still here
Most of us have survived. It’s not been without some challenging days, but surviving puts us in the game when the good times return. Already, reports are indicating that the bottom has been reached and housing took a significant jump last month. It won’t be quick but business will return. Reduced capacity will mean lots of work for everyone still standing when things turn positive again.
2. No Card Check
There was a time when EFCA was “touch and go” but it died due to the continuous pressing by merit shop businesses in all sectors for months on end. Even the general public caught wind that behind EFCA was a trail of reduced liberties and the elimination of the secret ballot. So far - so good but as Governor Arnold once said in the movies, “I’ll be back!” IEC will not take their eye off his ball.
3. Health Care Bill limps into the Senate
Here’s another issue where the public – and in turn the politicians that heard from them - became aware that the Health Care proposals were anything but a panacea. The jury is still out on this bill but it does appear that the public option, which is that the bill will devastate private sector choice, could go by the wayside. The health care priority at the beginning of 2009 has come “off the front lines” limping back to the aid station to fight another day. But business will need to keep up the pressure.
4. Rates are low
Through all of this, rates have remained low and are at a level that will, at the very least, not encumber recovery. It should fuel a nice come back. The balancing act on rates has held so far. Another good thing has been decreased fuel demands which has stabilized the price of gas needed to fuel our trucks. It wasn’t too long ago that predictions were that $5 per gallon gasoline would become the norm.
5. The Market
Is there any doubt in the minds of free market disciples that the place to fix the market is in the market itself. Often bewildering to the public sector (and many others), the market has a way of gauging, reacting, adjusting and fueling needed market movement like no government stimulus plan can do. There are few signs as optimistic as the stock market recovering, which bases its bullish moves on what is well ahead of tomorrow’s headlines. Let’s hope it continues.
So there’s the good and bad of 2009. The New Year is bound to profile in a more positive way. The IEC is most needed during times like these. We hope your business and your families enjoy a prosperous, health and happy New Year.
Gary Dykstra
President